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It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Analysis of fire and collapse theories and examination of related evidence.

It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Dr. G » Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:17 pm

I have taken NIST's WTC 7 collapse velocity function given on page 603 of NCSTAR 1-9:

v(t) = 247.52(0.18562t)^2.5126 exp[-(0.18562t)^3.5126]

I have differentiated this equation to obtain the acceleration as a function of t. The result is a very long equation which I will not write out here, but I ask all you math geeks out there to please check this.

What I find is that the acceleration rises steadily from zero for the first three seconds of motion and peaks at a time of 3.2 seconds. Then, after 4.9 seconds, the acceleration becomes negative, i.e. the building's motion is decelerating after this time.

The amazing result is that the acceleration is above g for almost 1 second, from t = 2.7 to t = 3.7 seconds with a peak value of 10.5 m/s^2!

Interestingly, posters Einsteen and David Chandler have claimed to measure accelerations faster than g using different techniques of video analysis. Now it appears that even the great NIST is finding accelerations greater than g, so it's official!

But if we accept this result I have to ask:

What is going on?
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Major_Tom » Tue Nov 25, 2008 7:38 pm

It would be nice to see a plot of a(t). I'd like to help but I lack the software.
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby einsteen » Tue Nov 25, 2008 8:02 pm

Always time for a quick quicky, today's homework is finished...

Click for full size image

feet/sec^2, happy feet, bigfoot ?
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Dr. G » Tue Nov 25, 2008 8:58 pm

Einsteen:

Yes! You got it,...... over 34 ft/s^2 at t = 3.2 s, ........ amazing!

Makes you wonder why NIST came up with its strange linear fit to the velocity function derived from a central difference approximation and claim the slope is exactly 32.196 ft/s^2. (See Figure 12-77 on page 603 of NCSTAR 1-9).

Reminds me of a very famous misprint in a chemistry paper:

"The data were plotted to give a straight lie."

And on a side note, I used to severely reprimand my (1st-year University) students for quoting too many significant figures........ 32.196 indeed!

Anyway, why not do a 2nd differentiation of the original least squares fit curve for the drop vs. time plot given in Figure 12-76? And why not give an R^2 (goodness of fit parameter) for the original curve?

Thanks Einsteen
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Major_Tom » Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:31 pm

Phenomenal. Interesting curve.

It is assumed that within a certain time segment dt, the crushing of a corresponding certain number of floors is taking place.

So what group of floors being crushed would correspond with these unique collapse acceleration phases?


Phase 1) A general increase of acceleration just after initiation.

Phase 2) A peaking of acceleration for a period of time above g!!!

Phase 3) Movement to constant velocity

And some more, but this is enough for now.

As a very basic physics problem, overall acceleration of any point is proportionally related to the overall force acting on the point at any given time.

Overall force can be considered F(g) + F(c)

Where bold means vector quantity and

F(g) is the force of gravity
F(c) is the overall constraint force


This means that in Einsteen's graph, you can think of vertical scale either as overall acceleration or overall force, which is

F(g) + F(c)

Let's consider just the z component of the vector (z is up)

We know F(g) acts downward.

We've always found it reasonable to expect that F(c) acts upward.

Hence let's think of the vertical axis as the scalar F(g) - F(c), the magnitude of the z component of the respective forces.



Note that this approach is totally general, we haven't even specified what F(c) is, we only know that it mathematically exists.


Most people see F(c) as the force resisting the fall due to crushing.

But this explanation is impossible in the region where a(t)>g

During this interval, F(c) is actually pushing downwards in the same direction as F(g).
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Major_Tom » Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:54 pm

In the regions...

a(t)> 0, F(g) overwhelms F(c)

when a(t)=0, they counterbalance each other


as a(t) goes below 0, f(c) out-strengthens f(g)


When a(t)=g a constraint force ceases to exist, zero resistance.

when a(t)>g, the mystery is to explain what F(c) is and why it is pushing downwards.
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby OneWhiteEye » Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:18 pm

Oh, this is rich! Good job, Dr. G. What is going on here?

The data were plotted to give a straight lie.


Hahaha, nice one!
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby OneWhiteEye » Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:20 pm

when a(t)>g, the mystery is to explain what F(c) is and why it is pushing downwards.

It's not push, it's pull.
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby OneWhiteEye » Wed Nov 26, 2008 12:27 am

I think I've got it. Stand by.
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby OneWhiteEye » Wed Nov 26, 2008 12:37 am

Dr. G beat me to it on the other thread! Well, I've got a post going so I'll put it up anyway in a few.
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Dr. G » Wed Nov 26, 2008 12:50 am

Thanks for the input, ..... always welcome!

And I guess I was wrong for saying that real-world building collapse accelerations cannot be greater than g.

Anyway .............. we live and learn

Another reason to be skeptical of NIST's fitting function is its behavior at large t. I believe that by 7 seconds, NIST's function is already close to its asymptotic value of about 120 meters, even though WTC 7 was 186 meters tall!

Nevertheless you do have to allow for rubble accumulation and pile-up, ...... but a collapse arrest at only 120 meters appears to be an excessive level of resistance that was not observed
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby OneWhiteEye » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:10 am

Good catch, Dr. G, NIST's fit is probably worthless. what follows is not exactly what you say in the other thread, but definitely on the same wavelength.

They're wrong.

NIST's choice of function to fit, as you say, is without physical meaning. I can forgive them on this point as their intent is apparently interpolation rather than explanation. However, that doesn't relieve them of the burden of doing everything else right. If they've interpolated their data correctly, and it looks like they have, then either their data is bogus, or...

They've been bitten by the old t(0) problem.

I've plotted their position function (scaled to meters) against freefall. The NIST y(t) curve is a solid teal line, and g is solid red. Larger versions to follow in next post.

Image

As you can see, freefall greatly outpaces their curve, maybe because their curve languishes for the better part of a second. The dotted red line represents freefall but with a t(0) at +0.7 seconds. This about splits the difference from about 3.5 seconds on, but freefall still initially outpaces the NIST curve noticeably for about the first two seconds.

Now, I'm going to add the last data I posted after reworking einsteen's smear. There are problems with this data because I mistakenly grabbed the cubic bezier control points instead of the anchor points - that's why it's so jaggy - but, hey, it's good enough for this. These data points are shown as magenta dots with a connecting line:

Image

Almost indistinguishable from freefall starting at 0.7 seconds! But still very different from NIST. Can this be fixed? If you look at the dotted gray lines that have been added, it shows that the y values are equal at about 3 seconds and 3.7 seconds, respectively. How about I add 0.7 seconds to the time on my data?

Image

Pretty good match from 3 seconds on, but my data is even steeper than theirs! Way faster than g! How can that be when I can get a decent fit at less than g even with a quadratic? I've added a blue line for this fit of y(t) = 0.112 - 4.808*t + 4.532*t^2:

Image

It is a really good fit over most of the data but, as noted elsewhere, second degree fits do not capture the beginning well. The constant acceleration from this fit is about 9 m/s^2 but the initial velocity is about -5 m/s starting from a meter higher than the building stood! This is not real!

If the first two data points are removed from this set (the first is t0 defined as t0 = (0,0) and the time is arbitrary, anyway) and 0.7 seconds subtracted from the time, this is what the data looks like:

Image

Of course, it looks like g, that was already established above when the freefall curve was translated 0.7 seconds the other way. But there are two important things to note. While it looks like g, it isn't necessarily so. The best second degree fit, which is an excellent fit all the way around, shows a constant acceleration of about 9 m/s^2. The other thing is, when my curve was translated to better match NIST's curve, it looked steeper than theirs, except we see that it isn't from this different perspective.

Hmmm....

Let's chop 1.2 seconds off the front of the NIST y(t) function!

Image

That's more like it. This is one of your points, Dr. G. Down in the mud of initiation, where a +/- 1 pixel accuracy counts for a lot more than in the later stages, it doesn't look like a parabola but, from t=2 forward, it parallels free fall pretty well. I'm not responsible for the funky choice of function, so I can't be blamed for how it looks in the first half second. Had NIST chosen a quadratic to fit their data, my sampling of their interpolation would look exactly like a parabola!

Had they chosen a later t(0), they may have opted for a quadratic fit after all, since they wouldn't have that long slow creep to try to fit with one function. As it is, a quadratic fits their exponential frankenstein fairly well at an acceleration of 9 m/s^2 - exactly what my data says. A comparison coming up, along with links to large versions of the graphs above.
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Re: It's Official! NIST fudges!

Postby OneWhiteEye » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:44 am

Dr. G wrote:Thanks for the input, ..... always welcome!

Whenever possible; you're hard to keep up with.

And I guess I was wrong for saying that real-world building collapse accelerations cannot be greater than g.

Maaaaaaybe. I'm pretty certain the CM of the moving portion cannot exceed g, but that's not what we're measuring.

Another reason to be skeptical of NIST's fitting function is its behavior at large t. I believe that by 7 seconds, NIST's function is already close to its asymptotic value of about 120 meters, even though WTC 7 was 186 meters tall!

One size fits all does not work, that's all I can say. Piecewise fits will be much better.

---

Here are the big versions of the graphs, in order:

http://i34.tinypic.com/29cnkg3.png

http://i34.tinypic.com/2evds8z.png

http://i38.tinypic.com/14xdwu8.png

http://i38.tinypic.com/xop4yf.png

http://i37.tinypic.com/5jsfb4.png

http://i38.tinypic.com/2ef5po4.png


And the quadratic fits, first for my translated data:

Click for full size image

Then NIST's translated data:

Click for full size image


But this is the sweetest of all. When I force the initial position and velocity to be zero, I still get an excellent fit on the NIST curve at 8.7 m/s^2:

Click for full size image

That's right, y = 4.35t^2. Really simple. I'm sure it would fit even better if I had access to their original data, instead of their bogus interpolator. Actually, I have the means to digitize the points on their graph, so maybe I will.

Can't forget that their dataset comes from the middle and not the NW corner. No reason to expect them to match perfectly anyway.
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Dr. G » Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:54 am

OneWhiteEye:

Glad to see you are "on the job"! I agree that when it comes to curve fitting the WTC 7 collapse, it's all about the choice of t(0). One or two seconds of a building slowly moving down before "letting go" really messes everything up!

Too bad NIST can't bring themselves to admit that.

No, NIST appear to follow the creed of yet another famous scientific misprint:

Additional research will be undertaken to make these results more ambiguous
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Re: It's Official! It's Faster than Free Fall!

Postby Major_Tom » Wed Nov 26, 2008 5:51 pm

If a>g temporarily, it must be attributed to something.

So a spring explanation could be:

We do not doubt that a(t) of the center of mass never exceeds g.

We measure all movement relative to points on the perimeter only, hence we are actually watching perimeter behavior only in the videos, not center of mass movement. This lets Issac Newton off the hook for now.

The a>g phase is due to a "whiplash" effect caused by a transient spring force pulling the perimeter downward.

It is as if you attach a bowling ball to the rear bumper of your car by using a spring. If you begin driving your car with a constant acceleration (or any acceleration, for that matter) the bowling ball will be initially seen to lag behind the car and then quickly exceed the acceleration of the car with a one time "whip motion".

This whip motion is just a one time transcient.
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